Fundamental Analysis

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What Is Fundamental Analysis?

Fundamental analysis (FA) is a method of determining the intrinsic value of a security by examining related economic and financial factors. Studying every factor that can affect the security’s value, from macroeconomic factors such as the state of the economy and industry conditions to microeconomic factors like the effectiveness of the company’s management is the work of  Fundamental analysts.

Fundamental analysis of stock is considered to be in direct contrast to technical analysis,  which forecasts the direction of prices through an analysis of historical market data such as price and volume as it considers the factors in the present that would likely affect the value of the stock(s) being valued.

The ultimate goal of this analysis is to arrive at a figure that an investor can compare with a security’s current price in order to see whether the security is undervalued or overvalued.

 

Understanding Fundamental Analysis

Every stock analysis tries to determine whether a security is correctly valued within the larger market. Fundamental analysis is usually done from a macro to micro perspective in order to identify securities that are not priced correctly by the market.

Analysts usually study, sequentially, the overall state of the economy and then the strength of the specific industry before concentrating on individual company performance to arrive at a fair market value for the stock.

Fundamental analysis uses public data to evaluate the value of a stock or any other type of security. For instance, an investor can perform fundamental analysis on a bond’s value by looking at economic factors such as interest rates and the overall state of the economy, then studying information about the bond issuer, such as potential changes in its credit rating.

For stocks, fundamental analysis uses revenues, earnings, future growth, return on equity, profit margins, and other data to determine a company’s underlying value and potential for future growth. All of this data is available in a company’s financial statements.

 

Fundamental analysis is often mainly used for stocks, nonetheless, it is useful for evaluating any security, from a bond to a derivative. Basically, when considering the fundamentals, from the broader economy to the company details, it is a fundamental analysis.

Investing and Fundamental Analysis

An analyst works to create a model for determining the estimated value of a company’s share price based on data available to the public. This value is only an estimate, the analyst’s educated opinion, of what the company’s share price should be worth compared to the current trading market price. Some analysts may refer to their estimated price as the company’s intrinsic value.

If an analyst calculates that the stock’s value should be significantly higher than the stock’s current market price, they may publish a buy or overweight rating for the stock. This acts as a recommendation to investors who follow that analyst. If the analyst calculates a lower intrinsic value than the current market price, the stock is considered overvalued and a sell or underweight recommendation is issued.

Investors who follow these recommendations will expect that they can buy stocks with favorable recommendations because such stocks should have a higher probability of rising over time. Likewise, stocks with unfavorable ratings are expected to have a higher probability of falling in price. Such stocks are candidates for being removed from existing portfolios or added as “short positions.

This method of stock analysis is considered to be the opposite of technical analysis, which forecasts the direction of prices through an analysis of historical market data such as price and volume.

Quantitative and Qualitative Fundamental Analysis

The use of the word fundamental can cover anything related to the economic well-being of a company. They obviously include numbers like revenue and profit, but they can also include anything from a company’s market share to the quality of its management as well as any other factor that might affect productivity.

The various fundamental factors can be grouped into two categories: quantitative and qualitative. The financial meaning of these terms isn’t much different from their standard definitions. Here is how a dictionary defines the terms:

  • Quantitative – capable of being measured or expressed in numerical terms.
  • Qualitative – related to or based on the quality or character of something, often as opposed to its size or quantity.

In this context, quantitative fundamentals are hard numbers. They are the measurable facts and characteristics of a business. As a result of this, the largest source of quantitative data is financial statements. Revenue, profit, assets, and more can be measured with great precision.

The qualitative fundamentals are less tangible. They might include the quality of a company’s key executives, brand-name recognition, patents, and proprietary technology. All these are ephemeral even though they play a significant role in determining the value of a security.

Neither qualitative nor quantitative analysis is inherently better. Many analysts consider them together.

Qualitative Fundamentals to Consider

There are four key fundamentals that analysts always consider when regarding a company. All are qualitative rather than quantitative. They include:

  • The business model: This refers to the method of operation of the business especially when it comes to it’s earning. It is not as straightforward as it appears to be.  It so how w particular business is set up to operate.
  • Competitive advantage: The relative advantage a company has over other similar companies when it comes to production and other economic activities can be called competitive advantage. A company’s long-term success is driven largely by its ability to maintain a competitive advantage—and keep it. Powerful competitive advantages, such as Coca Cola’s brand name and Microsoft’s domination of the personal computer operating system, create a moat around a business allowing it to keep competitors at bay and enjoy growth and profits. When a company can achieve a competitive advantage, its shareholders can be well rewarded for decades.
  • Management: Effective management is a crucial determining factor for the success of a business venture. Some believe that management is the most important criterion for investing in a company. It makes sense: Even the best business model is doomed if the leaders of the company fail to properly execute the plan. The individual capacity of the managers to execute projects and get results would go a long way in ensuring the success or failure of any company.
  • Corporate Governance: This basically refers to the policies in place within an organization denoting the relationships and responsibilities between management, directors, and stakeholders. These policies are defined and determined in the company charter and its bylaws, along with corporate laws and regulations. A company that is run ethically, fairly, transparently, and efficiently well-governed. Particularly in such cases, management respects shareholder rights and shareholder interests. Make sure their communications to shareholders are transparent, clear and understandable. With such a system in place, only the right things are done, promoted or rewarded.

It’s also important to consider a company’s industry: customer base, market share among firms, industry-wide growth, competition, regulation, and business cycles. Learning about how the industry works will give an investor a deeper understanding of a company’s financial health.

Quantitative Fundamentals to Consider

Financial statements are the medium by which a company discloses information concerning its financial performance. Followers of fundamental analysis use quantitative information gleaned from financial statements to make investment decisions. The three most important financial statements are income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements.

The Balance Sheet

The balance sheet represents a record of a company’s assets, liabilities, and equity at a particular point in time. The balance sheet is named by the fact that a business’s financial structure balances in the following manner:

Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders\’ Equity

Assets represent the resources that the business owns or controls at a given point in time. This includes items such as cash, inventory, machinery, and buildings. The other side of the equation represents the total value of the financing the company has used to acquire those assets. Financing comes as a result of liabilities or equity. Liabilities represent debt (which of course must be paid back), while equity represents the total value of money that the owners have contributed to the business – including retained earnings, which is the profit made in previous years.

The Income Statement

While the balance sheet takes a snapshot approach in examining a business, the income statement measures a company’s performance over a specific time frame. Technically, you could have a balance sheet for a month or even a day, but you’ll only see public companies report quarterly and annually.

The income statement presents information about revenues, expenses and profit that was generated as a result of the business’ operations for that period.

Statement of Cash Flows

The statement of cash flows represents a record of a business’ cash inflows and outflows over a period of time. Typically, a statement of cash flows focuses on the following cash-related activities:

  • Cash from investing (CFI): This refers to Cash used for investing in assets, as well as the proceeds from the sale of other businesses, equipment or long-term assets
  • Cash from financing (CFF): This is the Cash paid or received from the issuing and borrowing of funds
  • Operating Cash Flow (OCF): This is Cash generated from day-to-day business operations.

The cash flow statement is important because it’s very difficult for a business to manipulate its cash situation. There is plenty that aggressive accountants can do to manipulate earnings, but it’s tough to fake cash in the bank. For this reason, some investors use the cash flow statement as a more conservative measure of a company’s performance.

The Concept of Intrinsic Value

One of the primary assumptions of fundamental analysis is that the current price from the stock market often does not fully reflect the value of the company supported by the publicly available data. A second assumption is that the value reflected from the company’s fundamental data is more likely to be closer to the true value of the stock.

Analysts often refer to this hypothetical true value as the intrinsic value. However, it should be noted that this usage of the phrase intrinsic value means something different in-stock valuation than what it means in other contexts such as options trading. Option pricing uses a standard calculation for intrinsic value, however, analysts use a various complex models to arrive at their intrinsic value for a stock. There is not a single, generally accepted formula for arriving at the intrinsic value of a stock.

For example, say that a company’s stock was trading at $20, and after extensive research on the company, an analyst determines that it ought to be worth $24. Another analyst does equal research but determines that it ought to be worth $26. Many investors will consider the average of such estimates and assume that the intrinsic value of the stock may be near $25. Often investors consider these estimates highly relevant information because they want to buy stocks that are trading at prices significantly below these intrinsic values.

This leads to a third major assumption of fundamental analysis: In the long run, the stock market will reflect the fundamentals. The problem is, nobody knows how long “the long run” really is. It could be days or years.

This is what fundamental analysis is all about. By focusing on a particular business, an investor can estimate the intrinsic value of a firm and find opportunities to buy at a discount. The investment will pay off when the market catches up to the fundamentals.

 

One of the most famous and successful fundamental analysts is the so-called “Oracle of Omaha,” Warren Buffett, who champions the technique in picking stocks.

Criticisms of Fundamental Analysis

The biggest criticisms of fundamental analysis come primarily from two groups: proponents of technical analysis and believers of the efficient market hypothesis.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the other primary form of security analysis. Put simply, technical analysts base their investments (or, more precisely, their trades) solely on the price and volume movements of stocks. Using charts and other tools, they trade on momentum and ignore the fundamentals.

One of the basic tenets of technical analysis is that the market discounts everything. All news about a company is already priced into the stock. Therefore, the stock’s price movements give more insight than the underlying fundamentals of the business itself.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

The efficient market hypothesis contends that it is essentially impossible to beat the market through either fundamental or technical analysis. Since the market efficiently prices all stocks on an ongoing basis, any opportunities for excess returns are almost immediately whittled away by the market’s many participants, making it impossible for anyone to meaningfully outperform the market over the long term.

KEY POINTS

  • Fundamental analysis is a method of determining a stock’s real or “fair market” value.
  • Fundamental analysts search for stocks that are currently trading at prices that are higher or lower than their real value.
  • If the fair market value is higher than the market price, the stock is deemed to be undervalued and a buy recommendation is given.
  • In contrast, technical analysts ignore the fundamentals in favor of studying the historical price trends of the stock.

 

 

 

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